30
The War on Aging
before the age of one instead lived to an age typical of those of 
their cohort who survived infancy  certainly at least 50 years 
on average. Thus, Pasteur may well have added on the order 
of a billion person-years to human life.
The demographic result is that deaths in infancy are now 
vastly outnumbered by deaths between ages 50 and 100. But 
this is not reflected in our priorities, as demonstrated by the 
resources allocated to medical research and care. Enormous 
effort is made to maintain the life of sick babies, and nobody 
disputes the merit of such a policy. Indeed, it seems difficult to 
imagine any argument against it that does not utterly fly in the 
face of all that we instinctively know about human morality.
In this article I explore an extremely straightforward scenario, 
whose neglect by others can, I feel, stem only from unjustifiable 
short-sightedness: that humanitys progress in reducing death 
rates at older ages will recapitulate the sequence just outlined 
for infant mortality. Some time  quite possibly within only a 
few decades, as I have discussed extensively elsewhere and will 
therefore only summarize here  we will make breakthroughs 
in maintaining and restoring the health and vigor of the elderly 
comparable, in terms of healthy years added to their lives, to 
what Pasteur and those who implemented his ideas gave to 
those otherwise destined to die in infancy. Forever thereafter, 
I suggest, we will strive vigorously to reduce the incidence of 
involuntary death (at whatever age) yet further. In the sec-
tions that follow I sketch some of the major advances that 
we seem likely to make in this endeavor. The later episodes 
that I describe may seem uninterestingly distant at first, but 
such  nonchalance  becomes  questionable  when  one  consid-
ers how early in this chain of events those with access to the 
latest medical care will begin to enjoy a diminishing mortality 
risk  an increasing remaining life expectancy as time passes. 
(I like to call this the achievement of life extension escape veloc-
ity.) In a nutshell, I claim it is probable that most of the first